A surprising number of recent Bayesian phylogenetic analyses contain branch-length estimates that are several orders of magnitude longer than corresponding maximum-likelihood estimates. The levels of ...

When Bob flips a coin and announces the result, what can we really know about which coin he chose? This video builds probability trees to reveal how new evidence systematically updates our beliefs, ...

Virtually all computations performed by the nervous system are subject to uncertainty and taking this into account is critical for making inferences about the outside world. For instance, imagine ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...