In the nation's rapidly evolving debt market, clarity on the understanding of the probability of default (PD) is critical for every investor aspiring to invest in bonds. Whether you are investing in ...

The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained in the 0% to 1% range. The probability of being in this range is only 0.02% higher than the probability of the 1% to 2% range.

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...