This is a guest post by Nathan Paxton. As social scientists, at least as regards what we can empirically assess, we tend to make statements of probability rather than fact. So rather than say that ...

In this paper, we show that the conditional frequentist method of testing a precise hypothesis can be made virtually equivalent to Bayesian testing. The conditioning strategy proposed by Berger, Brown ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...