40 reactions | Ensuring skills and priorities are aligned across...

Intelligence assessments aim to explain something that has happened (insight), or to predict what might happen next (foresight). Intelligence analysts piece together assessments from an incomplete number of jigsaw pieces. Analysts therefore use a shared vocabulary of likelihood that aids clarity for both analysts and their readers, whilst communicating the probability that explanation or prediction is correct. A common yardstick to convey the language of uncertainty was developed by Defence Inte